11 Jan 2007 2203H

The Moy Conjecture on user choice and conversion

I’m so excited to declare my first ever user experience conjecture.

In mathematics, a conjecture is an statement that seems likely to be true, but has not been formally proven so (and thereby under the rules of mathematical logic, true in every case, for all time). We don’t have that level of proof in as squishy an area as user experience is, but, I think the amount of evidence is mounting in this direction. Based on my own observations, which have been corroborated by research from others, such as Schwartz and Iyengar, to name a few, the Moy Conjecture on the relationship between user choices and conversion is simply this:

When users are browsing for something, they tend to be attracted to sites they perceive to have more choices. When trying to accomplish a task, such as buying the best item from a given number of items, they tend to be more satisfied when they have fewer choices.

Or, for those who don’t like to read:

Users like more choices for browsing; fewer choices when buying.

The Moy conjecture implies that retailers should show lots of stuff up front to attract people, but to maximize conversion, guide people towards making “the right choice” as they make greater levels of commitment towards their shopping process. The shape of that process, then, might be shaped like the bell of a horn, pointed upwards. It’s very wide at the top, but quickly curves and narrows downwards . . . it might even be Zipf-distributed. ;-)

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